A significant increase in stainless steel output is not expected

Wed 9 Jul 2008

Demand for stainless steel is weakening in most parts of the world. MEPS (International) Ltd forecasts global crude production virtually unchanged at 28 million tonnes in 2008. Western World output is expected to decline by 300,000 tonnes this year.

Domestic supply by the EU mills was down in the first quarter by almost 4 percent compared to the same period in 2007. Inventory building in the second half should lead to a figure for the full year at a similar level to that in the previous twelve months.

Japanese production was 10 percent lower, year on year, in the first trimester. Further output curbs are being put in place in mid-year. However, inventory replenishment may occur in the latter months - leaving the annual crude outturn 4 percent down on 2007.

US domestic output held up quite well during the first quarter. This situation should continue for the remainder of this year. The import threat was limited in the early months but may increase slightly. Nevertheless, we predict a similar outturn in 2008 to that recorded in the previous year.

South Korean stainless steelmaking fell significantly in the first quarter. Posco will reduce output in July. Further curbs are anticipated later in the year because domestic demand is weak and export potential lacklustre. Taiwanese producers are also decreasing the level of supply to the market. A 5 percent reduction is forecast for 2008 relative to 2007.

Crude output from Brazil and India should be higher this year as domestic demand increases. However, production in South Africa is expected to be lower, due to the restrictions on power supply. The net result of these factors is likely to be a modest increase in total production from the "others" category in our table.

Chinese mills are likely to restrict output in the third quarter. New capacity continues to come on stream. Output curtailments should contain this year's total domestic crude supply to a figure below 8 million tonnes

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